Odds For Chasing a Flush in Poker

Chasing a flush (or straight) is an error that many novice players make when first visiting online poker rooms. Being dealt two suited cards can be of great advantage if at least one of them is highly ranked or they are adjacent in order, giving the possibility of multiple outs. However, it is not worth going full guns into the pot in the hope that you catch further cards of the same suit on the flop.

Unless you are already a student of pot odds, or read the trategy here on best poker site you may be unaware that that the odds of seeing two or more cards in the flop (of the suit that you have been dealt) are just over 25/1 – to catch all three is 125/1. Furthermore, if you are not holding the top rank, what chances of a further card of the same suit catching on the turn or river and blowing your winning hand out? A relatively paltry 8/1.

Knowing what chances you have of making a winning hand can be of great value to a player when looking at the options in front of her/him. Now that you are aware of the odds of achieving the flush from the flop, and the risk of seeing it getting beaten, you know you have to try to see each card as economically as possible until such time as you are certain that you have the unbeatable hand. If it came to the river and you were still waiting for your fifth card, your chances of winning are around 4/1*. Yet if there are only two of you remaining in the betting, do you want to call a large raise, effectively taking even money on a 4/1 chance?

* The odds really are 4/1 and not 3/1 as many players suppose. The reason for this is that you know four of the six cards you can already see are suited and therefore there are nine (say) hearts left in the 46 cards you have not yet seen – odds of slightly over 4/1 ([46/9]-1).

Your betting, indeed your participation in the hand, is largely going to depend on what other options you have with your hand. For example Ah Kh would suggest that your opening bet should be quite significant, however Ts 5s should be avoided unless you are in late position with very little coming in to you. Post flop, you may have other options available to you. The top pair, possibility of a straight – maybe even a set. The outcome of the flop will determine the level of your betting in later rounds, but an equally important consideration is the other players and your position amongst them.

If you find yourself on a fairly tight table and you start betting with volume, the players around you may choose to fold rather than get involved – particularly if you are located in late position. This could reduce the amount of money that you win or save you from getting caught if the cards fall against you. If you are situated early, and you have a short stacked aggressive player behind you, it may be to your advantage to check through, see what action they take and follow on from there.

Ultimately, realising the odds of you getting the cards you need to make your hand, and betting accordingly, are key elements to successful online poker.